Excessive Financial Support,Real Estate Development and Macroeconomic Growth: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

Using monthly panel data for China’s 30 provinces from 2007 to 2017, this article analyzes how level of financial support affects the interplay between real estate development and macroeconomic growth. Based on a threshold model, the results suggest that housing price increases substantially impede economic growth, but there is no significant threshold effect for the sample as a whole. On investigating regional cross-sectional variations, we found that local economic situation clearly impacts on this effect, with significant threshold effects detected in subsamples. While housing price may have positive influences on economic growth in the mid-west subgroup with appropriate financial support, more developed regions returned contrary results.     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

食品安全规制能提高生产者福利吗？——基于不同规制强度的检验

食品安全规制涉及政府、生产者和消费者三方利益主体的博弈。已有文献主要关注政府规制对减少生产者违规概率、提升食品安全水平和消费者福利所产生的作用。本文从生产者福利视角考察企业参与食品安全规制是否存在“收益率溢价”效应，以此对中国食品安全规制的间接效果进行实证检验。首先采用倾向得分匹配模型考察食品安全规制对企业资产收益率的平均影响效应，然后采用广义倾向得分匹配模型和门槛模型进一步考察不同规制强度与企业资产收益率的非线性关系。研究表明，当前食品安全规制对参与规制企业产生了“收益率溢价”的间接效果,但随着规制强度的扩展，企业资产收益率呈现先上升后下降的“倒U型”变化，具有显著的双重门槛特征，当企业持有4项质量认证证书时为“最优规制强度”。最后结合当前中国实际，解释了上述结论产生的原因及政策含义。     

辽宁省金融脆弱性研究

当前关于金融脆弱性的研究集中于国家这一宏观层面，对于省域金融脆弱性的研究还存在相当大的研究空间。正是基于这样一种相对创新性的视角，在对金融脆弱性现有研究进行综述的基础上对辽宁省的金融脆弱性的诱因进行了分析，并提出推动非银行金融机构的发展、拓展规模较大的银行的非利息收益以提升银行盈利能力以及全力清除不良贷款是应对辽宁省金融脆弱性的可行策略。     

Bank Income Diversification,Asset Correlation and Systemic Risk

This paper explores whether the asset correlations among the non-interest activities of banks are the key causes for enhancing the bank diversification-systemic risk nexus. Our empirical evidence indicates that banks' income diversification significantly raises systemic risk. After removing those banks with high asset correlations, the effect of individual banks' diversification on banking systemic risk turns insignificant or even inverse. The results show that high asset correlations among banks could introduce bank failures, thereby leading to higher systemic risk in the financial sector.     

The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner.     

生态文明建设背景财政扶持、林权改革对林业生产效率的影响

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国林业生产效率的区域差异和时序变化进行研究,运用面板Tobit模型检验财政扶持对林业生产效率的影响并验证林权改革对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:在生态文明建设背景下,林业生产效率存在显著的区域差异;技术进步对于全要素生产率的提升起到重要推进作用;财政扶持与林权改革均对林业生产效率产生了正向影响,但林权改革并没有对财政扶持与林业生产效率的关系产生积极调节作用。因此,各省份应当通过加大政府扶持力度、优化投资方式、深化集体林权制度改革等措施促进林业生产效率提升。     

The 2020 Pandemic: Economic repercussions and policy responses

This paper analyses the economic and financial repercussions of the 2020 COVID‐19 pandemic. It argues that the pandemic has inflicted serious injuries to the labor force but has not damaged the physical capital stock. Therefore, the resolution policies of this crisis ought to be carefully tailored to supporting structural adjustments to the labor market. The analysis asserts that the impact of the pandemic crisis is exacerbated by the identification gap between the unobserved and the officially reported cases of COVID‐19. The gap increases financial risks, including market‐, credit‐, default‐, and foreign exchange risks.     

Is bank staff interaction associated with customer saving behavior in banks?

Major changes are underway in the U.S. retail banking sector toward heavy investments in technology and fewer in personnel. Using the 2017 survey of household economics and decision‐making (SHED) (n = 11,359), we examine the relationship between saving behavior related to emergency, long‐term and periodic expenses and personal, technological, and hybrid bank account access methods. Binary logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds of reporting various saving behaviors in relation to various banking access methods. Findings suggest that the personal access method is positively associated with savings behavior for periodic expenses for the general population, and negatively associated with emergency savings in people with lower education attainment. Technology is associated with all types of saving behavior, while the hybrid access method is associated only with saving for periodic expenses. As investments in self‐service technology increase, the importance of access methods to savings behavior must be considered.     

关于发挥国家审计防范金融风险作用的路径研究

防范重大风险攻坚战是2019年经济工作的重要组成部分,而防范重大风险的工作重点是预防和控制金融风险,着力激发微观主体活力,创新和完善宏观调控,促进经济稳增长、防范风险,保持经济运行在合理区间,进一步实现“六个稳”。提升市场信心是赢得这场攻坚战的重要途径。本文旨在分析现阶段国内存在的主要金融风险,从金融审计角度来探索防范控制金融风险的相关路径。